Poblense
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: AD Ceuta FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC
| Probability | Poblense | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.4% | 23.5% | 54.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.4% | 23.5% | 54.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AD Ceuta FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC match preview
Poblense faces AD Ceuta FC in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, Poblense has a 22% chance of winning, while AD Ceuta FC is favored with a 54% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of AD Ceuta FC, with an expected goals tally of 1.24 for Poblense and 2.00 for AD Ceuta FC.
In terms of recent form, Poblense has struggled, recording two consecutive losses, while AD Ceuta FC's recent results include one win, two draws, and three losses. The model indicates a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Poblense and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Poblense and AD Ceuta FC attack and defence ratings
Poblense
AD Ceuta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Poblense | 22.4% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 54.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% |
| No | 37.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | AD Ceuta FC win | 32.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
Poblense vs AD Ceuta FC stats
Poblense and AD Ceuta FC recent form
| Poblense |
LL |
| AD Ceuta FC |
LDWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.