Cadiz
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cadiz
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cadiz is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
| Probability | Cadiz | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 26.2% | 21.9% |
| Market | 49.3% | 26.9% | 23.8% |
| Final | 49.9% | 26.7% | 23.3% |
| Edge | +0.7% | -0.2% | -0.5% |
Why Cadiz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.04.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.6% per unit staked (our 49.9% × 1.95 − 1).
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC match preview
Cadiz faces AD Ceuta FC in a Segunda División matchup with Cadiz holding a 52% probability of victory, while AD Ceuta FC has a 22% chance. The expected goals indicate Cadiz at 1.71 and AD Ceuta FC at 1.04, suggesting a potential edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at a 10% likelihood, and there is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form shows Cadiz struggling with three losses in their last six games, while AD Ceuta FC has also faced challenges, with only one win in their last six. In their last two encounters, Cadiz has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to AD Ceuta FC. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC attack and defence ratings
Cadiz
AD Ceuta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 49.9% | 2.00 | +0.7% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 49.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% |
| No | 45.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cadiz win | 29.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC stats
Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC recent form
| Cadiz |
LLWDLL |
| AD Ceuta FC |
LLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC season so far
Cadiz record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | AD Ceuta FC | Cadiz | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Cadiz | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 26.8%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.63 | 4.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.94 | 3.55 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.85 | 3.52 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.48 | 4.14 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 3.09 | 3.41 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .