Sabadell
vs
Tenerife
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabadell
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sabadell is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sabadell vs Tenerife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sabadell vs Tenerife
| Probability | Sabadell | Draw | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.5% | 32.0% | 24.6% |
| Market | 49.6% | 28.9% | 21.5% |
| Final | 48.0% | 29.7% | 22.3% |
| Edge | -1.5% | +0.8% | +0.8% |
Why Sabadell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 48.0% × 1.95 − 1).
Sabadell vs Tenerife match preview
Sabadell enters this match with a probability of winning at 48%, while Tenerife has a 22% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Sabadell, with a probability of 13%. Expected goals suggest Sabadell will score 1.40, compared to Tenerife's 0.88.
In terms of recent form, Sabadell has recorded a mixed bag of results with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Tenerife's form has been less favorable, with one win, three draws, and two losses in the same period. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 40%, while both teams are expected to score at a rate of 45%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sabadell and Tenerife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Sabadell and Tenerife attack and defence ratings
Sabadell
Tenerife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sabadell vs Tenerife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 48.0% | 2.08 | -1.5% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 48.0% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Tenerife | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.1% |
| No | 57.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 13.7% |
Sabadell vs Tenerife stats
Sabadell and Tenerife recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sabadell and Tenerife season so far
Sabadell record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Tenerife record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Sabadell vs Tenerife head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sabadell vs Tenerife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 29.1%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.34 | 4.54 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.24 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.26 | 4.58 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 2.83 | 3.67 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .