Burgos
vs
Sabadell
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burgos
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Burgos vs Sabadell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs Sabadell
| Probability | Burgos | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.8% | 34.9% | 26.3% |
| Market | 35.9% | 32.0% | 32.1% |
| Final | 36.7% | 32.7% | 30.6% |
| Edge | +2.9% | +2.9% | -5.8% |
Why Burgos
- The market prices Burgos below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Burgos vs Sabadell match preview
Burgos hosts Sabadell in a Segunda División clash with a kickoff set for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Burgos has a 38% probability of winning, while Sabadell stands at 30%, with a 32% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Burgos, with an expected goals tally of 1.03 for Burgos and 0.80 for Sabadell.
In terms of recent form, Burgos has recorded two losses, followed by three wins and a draw, while Sabadell has shown a mixed bag with two wins, three draws, and a loss in their last six matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 28%, and both teams to score sits at 37%, reflecting a potentially tight encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burgos and Sabadell expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.83
Burgos and Sabadell attack and defence ratings
Burgos
Sabadell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burgos vs Sabadell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 36.7% | 2.73 | +2.9% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 36.7% |
| Draw | 32.7% | |
| Sabadell | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.7% |
| No | 63.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 61.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.4% |
| 1-0 | 15.2% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Burgos vs Sabadell stats
Burgos and Sabadell recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burgos and Sabadell season so far
Burgos record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sabadell record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Burgos vs Sabadell head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Burgos vs Sabadell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 31.5%, away 32.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.08 | 2.94 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.57 | 2.98 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 2.91 | 3.09 |
| SBO | 2.44 | 2.78 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .