Burgos
vs
Granada
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burgos
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Burgos vs Granada overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs Granada
| Probability | Burgos | Draw | Granada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.1% | 24.0% | 18.0% |
| Market | 38.4% | 29.5% | 32.1% |
| Final | 43.3% | 28.1% | 28.6% |
| Edge | +19.7% | -5.5% | -14.1% |
Why Burgos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below the model: +19.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Burgos vs Granada match preview
Burgos will face Granada in their upcoming Segunda División match, with a kickoff scheduled for October 12, 2026. According to the model probabilities, Burgos has a 45% chance of winning, while Granada stands at 28%, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The expected goals indicate Burgos at 1.92 and Granada at 0.99, suggesting a stronger attacking performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Burgos has recorded one loss, three wins, and two draws in their last six matches, while Granada has experienced two wins, three losses, and a draw. The head-to-head record shows Burgos with one win and one draw against Granada, who has not secured a victory in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burgos and Granada expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Burgos and Granada attack and defence ratings
Burgos
Granada
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burgos vs Granada markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 43.3% | 2.31 | +19.7% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.9% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 43.3% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Granada | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 41.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Burgos vs Granada stats
Burgos and Granada recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burgos and Granada season so far
Burgos record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Granada record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burgos vs Granada head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Granada | Burgos | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Burgos | Granada | Segunda División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burgos vs Granada odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.4%, draw 29.5%, away 32.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.32 | 2.97 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.40 | 3.22 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.21 | 2.99 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 2.96 | 2.73 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .