Burgos
vs
Granada
0 – 1 Full time
| 17′ | Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña | ||
| 25′ | Pedro Alemañ Serna | ||
| 30′ | Rubén Alcaraz | ||
| 44′ | Pablo Galdames | ||
| 54′ | David Gonzalez | ||
| 55′ | Mario Jiménez GambínOwen Emeka | ||
| 55′ | Sergio Rodelas PintorJorge Pascual | ||
| 64′ | Alejandro Lizancos SaldañaAlberto Dadie | ||
| 64′ | Pablo GaldamesJosé Gragera | ||
| 65′ | CurroJon Karrikaburu | ||
| 68′ | Diego Varela PampínBaïla Diallo | ||
| 68′ | Sergio LópezPau Casadesús | ||
| 77′ | Álex ForésSantiago Lencina | ||
| 83′ | Unai VencedorVictor Mollejo | ||
| 83′ | José Manuel ArnáizChinaza Onouha | ||
| 90′ | Jorge Pascual | ||
| 90′ | Alberto Dadie |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 6 |
| 470 | Accurate passes | 248 |
Burgos vs Granada overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs Granada
| Probability | Burgos | Draw | Granada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.3% | 23.9% | 17.8% |
| Market | 38.5% | 29.6% | 31.9% |
| Final | 43.5% | 28.2% | 28.4% |
| Edge | +4.9% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
Why Burgos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burgos and Granada expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Burgos and Granada attack and defence ratings
Burgos
Granada
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Burgos vs Granada: result vs prediction
Burgos 0 – 1 Granada
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burgos vs Granada markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 43.5% | 2.30 | +4.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 43.5% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Granada | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 35.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Burgos vs Granada stats
Burgos and Granada recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burgos and Granada going into this match
Burgos record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Granada record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Burgos vs Granada head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Granada | Burgos | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Burgos | Granada | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-10 | Granada | Burgos | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-29 | Burgos | Granada | Segunda División | 2-2 |
| 2023-03-04 | Burgos | Granada | Segunda División | 1-3 |
| 2022-12-11 | Granada | Burgos | Segunda División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burgos vs Granada odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 29.6%, away 31.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.49 | 3.26 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.13 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.20 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.42 | 3.25 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 3.16 | 2.91 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.18 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 2.87 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .