Mallorca
vs
Las Palmas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mallorca
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Mallorca vs Las Palmas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
| Probability | Mallorca | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 30.2% | 19.0% |
| Market | 59.2% | 23.4% | 17.4% |
| Final | 57.1% | 25.1% | 17.8% |
| Edge | -8.3% | +6.7% | +1.6% |
Why Mallorca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas match preview
Mallorca faces Las Palmas in the Segunda División, with Mallorca holding a 56% probability of winning compared to Las Palmas at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Mallorca, with a 15% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Mallorca stand at 1.38, while Las Palmas is projected at 0.75.
Recent form shows Mallorca with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Las Palmas has struggled with one win and four losses. In their last four encounters, Mallorca has dominated with three wins and one draw, leaving Las Palmas without a victory. The probabilities reflect a moderate confidence grade of C, indicating a blend of statistical analysis and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mallorca and Las Palmas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Mallorca and Las Palmas attack and defence ratings
Mallorca
Las Palmas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mallorca vs Las Palmas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mallorca | 57.1% | 1.75 | -8.3% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mallorca | 57.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Las Palmas | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.6% |
| No | 59.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mallorca win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
Mallorca vs Las Palmas stats
Mallorca and Las Palmas recent form
| Mallorca |
DLWWDW |
| Las Palmas |
DLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mallorca and Las Palmas season so far
Mallorca record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Palmas record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-16 | Mallorca | Las Palmas | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Las Palmas | Mallorca | La Liga | 2-3 |
| 2024-05-11 | Mallorca | Las Palmas | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-12 | Las Palmas | Mallorca | La Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mallorca vs Las Palmas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.2%, draw 23.4%, away 17.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 4.23 | 5.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.20 | 5.63 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.58 | 4.76 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .