AD Ceuta FC
vs
Sabadell
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sabadell
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
| Probability | AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.7% | 31.1% | 41.2% |
| Market | 29.4% | 28.9% | 41.7% |
| Final | 29.0% | 29.4% | 41.6% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +2.3% | -0.5% |
Why Sabadell
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell match preview
AD Ceuta FC will face Sabadell in their upcoming Segunda División match on October 10, 2026. The model gives AD Ceuta FC a 27% chance of winning, while Sabadell is favored with a 44% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with AD Ceuta FC recording one win in their last six matches, while Sabadell has secured two wins in their last three outings.
In terms of expected goals, AD Ceuta FC is projected to score 1.08, compared to Sabadell's 1.43. The probabilities indicate a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 51% likelihood that both teams will find the net. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell attack and defence ratings
AD Ceuta FC
Sabadell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sabadell | 41.6% | 2.40 | -0.5% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 29.0% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Sabadell | 41.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sabadell win | 19.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 58.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell stats
AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell recent form
| AD Ceuta FC |
DWDLLL |
| Sabadell |
DDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell season so far
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sabadell record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.4%, draw 28.9%, away 41.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.36 | 2.29 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 3.14 | 3.26 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 3.23 | 3.35 | 2.27 |
| SBO | 2.94 | 2.94 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .