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Segunda División · Full time ·Matchday 9

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell

1 – 2 Full time

14′Ton Ripoll
25′Jordi Escobar
26′Ángel Baena
35′Daniel Mas SoriaAlexander Petxarroman Eizagirre
35′Joaquín Felipe González RodríguezMarino Illesca
44′Edgar Gonzalez
45′Jordi Escobar
45′Miki CodinaEneko Aguilar
53′Edgar Gonzalez
59′Alain RibeiroJosé Luis Català
79′Alejandro Camacho RamírezAbraham Bueno Espinosa
80′Ton RipollYanis Rahmani
80′Quadri LiameedPere Pons
80′Ángel Baena
85′Carlos HernándezAlejandro Meléndez
85′Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroOmar Sadik
87′Ángel BaenaNikolay Obolskiy
88′Eneko Aguilar

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, CeutaReferee: Olatz Rivera Olmedo

AD Ceuta FC 29%
Draw 30%
Sabadell 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 3
63 Possession % 37
2 Corners 3
8 Fouls 22
0 Offsides 2
1 Saves 3
413 Accurate passes 159

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAD Ceuta FCDrawSabadell
Model27.7%31.1%41.2%
Market30.0%29.2%40.8%
Final29.4%29.7%40.9%
Edge-0.6%+0.5%+0.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sabadell

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AD Ceuta FC ↓ / Sabadell → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 12% 8% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell expected goals

AD Ceuta FC 0.98
Sabadell 1.25

Total expected goals: 2.24

AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell attack and defence ratings

AD Ceuta FC

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Sabadell

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell: result vs prediction

AD Ceuta FC 1 – 2 Sabadell

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sabadell 40.9% 2.44 +0.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.3% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score No 54.0% 1.85 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 70.6% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.8% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AD Ceuta FC29.4%
Draw29.7%
Sabadell40.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.7%
Under 2.561.3%
Both teams to scoreYes46.0%
No54.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.1%
12 (either side)70.3%
X2 (draw or away)70.6%
Handicap -1Sabadell win19.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss58.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-112.1%
0-012.0%

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell stats

AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell recent form

newest first
AD Ceuta FC DWDLLL
Sabadell DDWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell going into this match

league record before kick-off

AD Ceuta FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sabadell record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 29.2%, away 40.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.24 3.36 2.29
Bet365 3.30 3.10 2.25
BetVictor 3.00 3.20 2.25
Betano 3.00 3.05 2.27
Betfair 3.00 3.10 2.20
Dafabet 3.20 3.30 2.30
Marathonbet 3.14 3.26 2.22
Pinnacle 3.14 3.38 2.35
SBO 2.75 2.91 2.26
William Hill 3.00 3.10 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.07 ▼ -0.34
X 3.15 ▼ -0.26
2 2.25 ▲ +0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from .