Castellón
vs
AD Ceuta FC
1 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | Israel Suero | ||
| 6′ | Gabriel Okoro | ||
| 46′ | Gabriel OkoroMarino Illescas | ||
| 49′ | Carlos Hernández | ||
| 53′ | Jordi Escobar | ||
| 55′ | Alberto Jiménez | ||
| 63′ | Íñigo CordobaAntonio Gala | ||
| 63′ | Federico CeccheriniLucas Alcazar | ||
| 69′ | Kialy Abdoul KoneEdgar Sevikyan | ||
| 77′ | Joaquín GonzálezAlejandro Meléndez | ||
| 77′ | Kuki ZalazarOmar Sadik | ||
| 79′ | Álvaro MartínHamza Bellari | ||
| 84′ | Jose Matos | ||
| 85′ | Alejandro CamachoÁlex Petxarroman | ||
| 86′ | Alvaro GarciaDavid Nzanza | ||
| 86′ | Pablo SantiagoRaúl Sánchez |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 72 | Possession % | 28 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 519 | Accurate passes | 156 |
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
| Probability | Castellón | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.8% | 15.7% | 6.6% |
| Market | 75.3% | 15.3% | 9.4% |
| Final | 75.9% | 15.4% | 8.7% |
| Edge | +2.5% | +0.3% | -2.8% |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Castellón below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Castellón and AD Ceuta FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Castellón and AD Ceuta FC attack and defence ratings
Castellón
AD Ceuta FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC: result vs prediction
Castellón 1 – 1 AD Ceuta FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 75.9% | 1.32 | +2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 75.9% |
| Draw | 15.4% | |
| AD Ceuta FC | 8.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 56.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 22.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.5% |
| 3-0 | 11.4% | |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC stats
Castellón and AD Ceuta FC recent form
| Castellón |
WWWWWD |
| AD Ceuta FC |
WDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Castellón and AD Ceuta FC going into this match
Castellón record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | AD Ceuta FC | Castellón | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Castellón | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División | 3-3 |
| 2024-02-11 | Castellón | AD Ceuta FC | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-15 | AD Ceuta FC | Castellón | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.3%, draw 15.3%, away 9.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.24 | 7.03 | 10.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.75 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.27 | 6.00 | 10.25 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 6.90 | 10.75 |
| SBO | 1.22 | 5.32 | 7.53 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .