AD Ceuta FC
vs
Real Sociedad II
3 – 1 Full time
| 33′ | Arkaitz Mariezkurrena | ||
| 44′ | Kazunari Kita | ||
| 48′ | Kazunari Kita | ||
| 64′ | Joaquín Felipe González RodríguezJordi Escobar | ||
| 66′ | Kazunari Kita | ||
| 67′ | Alex Marchal GarcíaUnax Agote | ||
| 67′ | Carlos Hernández | ||
| 68′ | José Juan Romero Gil | ||
| 71′ | Gorka Carrera Zarranz | ||
| 71′ | José Matos | ||
| 71′ | Gorka Carrera ZarranzJavier Soroeta | ||
| 72′ | Alex LebarbierIbai Aguirre | ||
| 72′ | Dani DiazGorka Gorosabel | ||
| 73′ | Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro | ||
| 76′ | Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroMarino Illesca | ||
| 76′ | José Antonio Abad MartínezAlejandro Meléndez | ||
| 81′ | Carlos Hernández | ||
| 86′ | Kialy Abdoul KoneAbraham Bueno Espinosa | ||
| 86′ | Iker RoperoSydney Osazuwa | ||
| 86′ | Anuar Mohamed TuhamiArick Betancourt | ||
| 89′ | Unax Agote | ||
| 90′ | Kuki Zalazar | ||
| 90′ | Jon Balda | ||
| 90′ | Jordi Escobar |
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 70 | Possession % | 30 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 410 | Accurate passes | 138 |
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II
| Probability | AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Real Sociedad II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.4% | 28.8% | 47.8% |
| Market | 36.6% | 27.3% | 36.2% |
| Final | 33.3% | 27.6% | 39.1% |
| Edge | -13.1% | +1.5% | +11.6% |
Why Real Sociedad II
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Real Sociedad II below the model: +11.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II attack and defence ratings
AD Ceuta FC
Real Sociedad II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II: result vs prediction
AD Ceuta FC 3 – 1 Real Sociedad II
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad II | 39.1% | 2.56 | +11.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 33.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Real Sociedad II | 39.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad II win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II stats
AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II recent form
| AD Ceuta FC |
DLLLLL |
| Real Sociedad II |
LWDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AD Ceuta FC and Real Sociedad II going into this match
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad II record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | AD Ceuta FC | Real Sociedad II | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Real Sociedad II | AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.5%, away 35.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.60 | 3.56 | 2.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.45 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.52 | 3.45 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.66 | 3.51 | 2.69 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.05 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .