Burgos
vs
Eldense
1 – 0 Full time
| 32′ | Alex Serradell Garralaga | ||
| 45′ | David Gonzalez | ||
| 55′ | Unai Vencedor | ||
| 59′ | Roberto LópezWaldo Rubio | ||
| 59′ | FidelJavi Martínez | ||
| 61′ | Jon KarrikaburuSantiago Lencina | ||
| 61′ | Javier Llabrés ExpositoVictor Mollejo | ||
| 71′ | Ignasi Vilarrasa PalaciosBrais Martínez | ||
| 71′ | Álex ForésCurro | ||
| 71′ | Jorge RastrojoManuel Nieto | ||
| 71′ | Carlos Guirao MoraGuillermo Macho Muñoz | ||
| 80′ | Jesús Clemente CorchoAlejandro Ibarrondo | ||
| 83′ | Unai VencedorPablo Galdames | ||
| 86′ | Santiago Lencina | ||
| 87′ | Juan Larios López | ||
| 90′ | Oier Luengo Redondo |
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 303 | Accurate passes | 350 |
Burgos vs Eldense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs Eldense
| Probability | Burgos | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 29.2% | 16.7% |
| Market | 45.7% | 29.2% | 25.1% |
| Final | 47.8% | 29.2% | 23.0% |
| Edge | +8.4% | +0.0% | -8.4% |
Why Burgos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Burgos below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burgos and Eldense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Burgos and Eldense attack and defence ratings
Burgos
Eldense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Burgos vs Eldense: result vs prediction
Burgos 1 – 0 Eldense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burgos vs Eldense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 47.8% | 2.09 | +8.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 47.8% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Eldense | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.4% |
| No | 60.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Burgos vs Eldense stats
Burgos and Eldense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burgos and Eldense going into this match
Burgos record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eldense record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Burgos vs Eldense head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Eldense | Burgos | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-08 | Burgos | Eldense | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-10 | Burgos | Eldense | Segunda División | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-05 | Eldense | Burgos | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2022-12-22 | Eldense | Burgos | Copa del Rey | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burgos vs Eldense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.7%, draw 29.2%, away 25.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.28 | 3.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.13 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.18 | 3.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.19 | 3.96 |
| SBO | 2.03 | 3.06 | 3.46 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .