Almeria
vs
Burgos
2 – 1 Full time
| 19′ | Mikel VesgaQuim junyent | ||
| 33′ | Léo Baptistão | ||
| 37′ | Brais Martínez | ||
| 40′ | Jon Karrikaburu | ||
| 49′ | Marcos Luna | ||
| 58′ | Léo BaptistãoAdrián Embarba | ||
| 59′ | Thalys Henrique Gomes de AraújoMiguel De La Fuente | ||
| 59′ | Marcos LunaDaijiro Chirino | ||
| 63′ | CurroAlejandro Lizancos Saldaña | ||
| 63′ | Jon KarrikaburuÁlex Forés | ||
| 63′ | Javier Llabrés ExpositoIgnasi Vilarrasa Palacios | ||
| 71′ | Brais MartínezPablo Galdames | ||
| 74′ | Alberto Dadie | ||
| 77′ | Pablo Galdames | ||
| 77′ | Brian Cipenga | ||
| 82′ | Alberto DadieVictor Mollejo | ||
| 84′ | Miguel De La Fuente | ||
| 87′ | Leonardo LeloÁlex Muñoz |
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 69 | Possession % | 31 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 556 | Accurate passes | 207 |
Almeria vs Burgos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almeria vs Burgos
| Probability | Almeria | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.2% | 35.0% | 27.8% |
| Market | 59.4% | 23.6% | 17.0% |
| Final | 53.9% | 26.5% | 19.7% |
| Edge | -22.2% | +11.4% | +10.8% |
Why Almeria
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almeria and Burgos expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.83
Almeria and Burgos attack and defence ratings
Almeria
Burgos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Almeria vs Burgos: result vs prediction
Almeria 2 – 1 Burgos
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almeria vs Burgos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 53.9% | 1.86 | -22.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 53.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Burgos | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.0% |
| No | 63.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.4% |
| 1-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.6% |
Almeria vs Burgos stats
Almeria and Burgos recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almeria and Burgos going into this match
Almeria record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burgos record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almeria vs Burgos head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Burgos | Almeria | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Almeria | Burgos | Segunda División | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-21 | Burgos | Almeria | Segunda División | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Almeria | Burgos | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2022-04-30 | Burgos | Almeria | Segunda División | 0-2 |
| 2021-11-07 | Almeria | Burgos | Segunda División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almeria vs Burgos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.4%, draw 23.6%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 4.12 | 5.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.00 | 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 4.06 | 6.16 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.65 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .