Almeria
vs
Leganes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Almeria
2 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Almeria vs Leganes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almeria vs Leganes
| Probability | Almeria | Draw | Leganes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.3% | 21.5% | 8.2% |
| Market | 57.0% | 23.4% | 19.6% |
| Final | 60.3% | 22.9% | 16.8% |
| Edge | +13.3% | -1.9% | -11.4% |
Why Almeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almeria below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Almeria vs Leganes match preview
Almeria enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five games, while Leganes has had a mixed performance with two losses in their last three outings. The model probabilities favor Almeria significantly at 70%, with a draw at 22% and Leganes at just 8%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Almeria, with 1.93 expected goals compared to Leganes' 0.52.
In their last three head-to-head encounters, Almeria has secured two victories, while Leganes has one win. The most likely scoreline for this match is 2-0 in favor of Almeria, which aligns with the 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade stands at C, indicating that these probabilities are model-based.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Almeria and Leganes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Almeria and Leganes attack and defence ratings
Almeria
Leganes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almeria vs Leganes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 60.3% | 1.66 | +13.3% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 60.3% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Leganes | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.5% |
| No | 64.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 44.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 29.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 16.1% |
| 1-0 | 15.8% | |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
Almeria vs Leganes stats
Almeria and Leganes recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almeria and Leganes season so far
Almeria record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almeria vs Leganes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Almeria | Leganes | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Leganes | Almeria | Segunda División | 0-3 |
| 2025-01-15 | Almeria | Leganes | Copa del Rey | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almeria vs Leganes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.0%, draw 23.4%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.23 | 4.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.08 | 4.79 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.57 | 4.41 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .