Segunda División
·
Full time
·Matchday 9
Almeria
vs
Leganes
3 – 0 Full time
| 13′ | Marvelous Antolín Garzón | ||
| 45′ | Thalys Henrique Gomes de AraújoMiguel De La Fuente | ||
| 52′ | Miguel De La Fuente | ||
| 57′ | Miguel De La Fuente | ||
| 61′ | Daijiro Chirino | ||
| 63′ | Marvelous Antolín GarzónFrancisco Montero | ||
| 63′ | Miguel AtienzaYassine Kechta | ||
| 64′ | Álvaro TejeroEnric Franquesa | ||
| 64′ | Ismael GharbiPatrick Soko | ||
| 66′ | Yassine Kechta | ||
| 67′ | Enric Franquesa | ||
| 71′ | Álvaro MorataÁlex Millán | ||
| 71′ | Daijiro ChirinoMarcos Luna | ||
| 71′ | Quim junyentNicolás Melamed Ribaudo | ||
| 74′ | Javier Muñoz Jiménez | ||
| 77′ | Francisco Montero | ||
| 81′ | Brian CipengaJon Morcillo | ||
| 82′ | Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo | ||
| 86′ | Javier Muñoz JiménezLéo Baptistão | ||
| 90′ | Álex Millán |
Almeria
61%
Draw
23%
Leganes
16%
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 25 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 517 | Accurate passes | 255 |
Almeria vs Leganes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almeria vs Leganes
| Probability | Almeria | Draw | Leganes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.3% | 21.5% | 8.2% |
| Market | 57.2% | 23.6% | 19.1% |
| Final | 60.5% | 23.1% | 16.4% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -0.5% | -2.7% |
Why Almeria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Almeria below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
71%
3+ goals
44%
No goals
10%
Almeria and Leganes expected goals
Almeria
1.93
Leganes
0.52
Total expected goals: 2.45
Almeria and Leganes attack and defence ratings
Almeria
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.72 -28%
Leganes
Attack
0.61 -39%
Defence
1.20 +20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Almeria vs Leganes: result vs prediction
Almeria 3 – 0 Leganes
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Almeria vs Leganes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 60.5% | 1.65 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almeria | 60.5% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Leganes | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.4% |
| No | 64.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almeria win | 44.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 29.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 16.1% |
| 1-0 | 15.8% | |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
Almeria vs Leganes stats
Almeria and Leganes recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almeria and Leganes going into this match
Almeria record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almeria vs Leganes head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
3Almeria wins
2Draws
2Leganes wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Almeria | Leganes | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Leganes | Almeria | Segunda División | 0-3 |
| 2025-01-15 | Almeria | Leganes | Copa del Rey | 2-3 |
| 2022-05-29 | Leganes | Almeria | Segunda División | 2-2 |
| 2021-10-29 | Almeria | Leganes | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2021-03-27 | Almeria | Leganes | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2021-02-17 | Leganes | Almeria | Segunda División | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almeria vs Leganes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.2%, draw 23.6%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.23 | 4.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 4.05 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 4.15 | 5.17 |
| SBO | 1.64 | 3.64 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.63 ▼ -0.04
X
3.95 ▼ -0.10
2
4.88 ▲ +0.21
13 snapshots recorded, from .