Cadiz
vs
Sporting Gijon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cadiz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
| Probability | Cadiz | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.0% | 27.6% | 32.4% |
| Market | 37.1% | 29.4% | 33.5% |
| Final | 37.9% | 28.9% | 33.2% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -1.8% | -1.1% |
Why Cadiz
- The market prices Cadiz below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon match preview
Cadiz faces Sporting Gijon in a Segunda División matchup with kickoff set for October 11, 2026. Current model probabilities suggest Cadiz has a 38% chance of winning, while Sporting Gijon stands at 34%, and a draw is at 29%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Cadiz, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Statistical expectations indicate that Cadiz is projected to score 1.48 goals, compared to Sporting Gijon's 1.32.
In terms of recent form, Cadiz has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Sporting Gijon has achieved three wins and three losses in the same timeframe. Historical head-to-head results from the last two encounters show each team with one victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 53%, and both teams scoring stands at 58%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon attack and defence ratings
Cadiz
Sporting Gijon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 37.9% | 2.64 | +2.9% | 2.58 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cadiz | 37.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Sporting Gijon | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cadiz win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 60.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon stats
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon recent form
| Cadiz |
WDLLLD |
| Sporting Gijon |
WLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cadiz and Sporting Gijon season so far
Cadiz record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Sporting Gijon | Cadiz | Segunda División | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Cadiz | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 29.4%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.32 | 2.84 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.13 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.15 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.50 | 3.22 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.23 | 2.89 |
| SBO | 2.37 | 2.95 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .