Real Valladolid
vs
Albacete
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Valladolid
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Real Valladolid vs Albacete overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Valladolid vs Albacete
| Probability | Real Valladolid | Draw | Albacete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 28.5% | 23.2% |
| Market | 47.5% | 28.4% | 24.1% |
| Final | 47.7% | 28.4% | 23.9% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.2% | -1.0% |
Why Real Valladolid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Real Valladolid vs Albacete match preview
Real Valladolid faces Albacete in the Segunda División with a kickoff set for October 12, 2026. The model gives Real Valladolid a 49% chance of winning, while Albacete has a 23% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Real Valladolid, with an 11% chance. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Valladolid recording two draws and a win in their last six matches, while Albacete has struggled significantly, losing five of their last six.
In terms of expected goals, Real Valladolid is projected to score 1.50, compared to Albacete's 0.97. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45%, and both teams scoring is at 49%. Historically, in their last two encounters, Albacete has won both matches against Real Valladolid.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Valladolid and Albacete expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Real Valladolid and Albacete attack and defence ratings
Real Valladolid
Albacete
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Valladolid vs Albacete markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 47.7% | 2.10 | +0.8% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 47.7% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Albacete | 23.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.7% |
Real Valladolid vs Albacete stats
Real Valladolid and Albacete recent form
| Real Valladolid |
DWDLWD |
| Albacete |
LLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Valladolid and Albacete season so far
Real Valladolid record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Albacete record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Real Valladolid vs Albacete head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Real Valladolid | Albacete | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Albacete | Real Valladolid | Segunda División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Valladolid vs Albacete odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.5%, draw 28.4%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.38 | 4.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.28 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.26 | 4.11 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 3.02 | 3.18 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .