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Segunda División · Full time ·Matchday 8

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II

3 – 2 Full time

8′O. Marcos
25′Andrés Cuenca
33′A. Casas
45′Pablo González Meixús
45′A. Casas
46′P. GarciaI. Martinez
46′A. CuencaD. Sanchez
46′A. CasasA. Sarco
50′Anxo Rodríguez
57′Alejo Sarco
58′E. PrendesD. Matabuena
60′G. Rosas
61′A. RodriguezA. Arcos
61′G. MillaVlad
69′Manuel Rodríguez
75′G. CamposM. Conde
77′Mata
78′A. Kibet
82′A. KibetD. Sueiro
82′A. MarinJ. Perez-Lafuente
86′Kike Ribes
89′J. LopezJ. Oliveras
90′Miguel Conde

El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini, GijonReferee: German Cid Camacho

Sporting Gijon 57%
Draw 25%
Celta de Vigo II 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 8
50 Possession % 50
6 Corners 6
14 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1
5 Saves 4
388 Accurate passes 407

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting GijonDrawCelta de Vigo II
Model50.3%28.2%21.5%
Market59.1%23.8%17.2%
Final56.9%24.9%18.3%
Edge-8.8%+4.4%+4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Sporting Gijon

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting Gijon ↓ / Celta de Vigo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 12% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II expected goals

Sporting Gijon 1.53
Celta de Vigo II 0.92

Total expected goals: 2.45

Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II attack and defence ratings

Sporting Gijon

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Celta de Vigo II

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II: result vs prediction

Sporting Gijon 3 – 2 Celta de Vigo II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sporting Gijon 56.9% 1.76 -8.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.6% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score No 51.6% 1.94 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.7% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.8% 2.01 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting Gijon56.9%
Draw24.9%
Celta de Vigo II18.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.4%
Under 2.555.6%
Both teams to scoreYes48.4%
No51.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.7%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)43.1%
Handicap -1Sporting Gijon win26.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss49.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-012.0%
2-010.1%

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II stats

Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II recent form

newest first
Sporting Gijon LWLLWW
Celta de Vigo II DLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sporting Gijon record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Celta de Vigo II record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.1%, draw 23.8%, away 17.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.59 4.28 5.57
Bet365 1.60 3.75 5.75
BetVictor 1.55 3.90 5.25
Betano 1.62 3.95 5.70
Betfair 1.55 3.80 5.00
Marathonbet 1.54 4.15 5.40
Pinnacle 1.64 4.01 5.61
SBO 1.50 3.65 4.84
William Hill 1.57 3.80 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.57 ▲ +0.02
X 3.90 ▼ -0.31
2 5.40 ▼ -0.25

13 snapshots recorded, from .