Leganes
vs
Castellón
0 – 2 Full time
| 20′ | Álvaro Morata | ||
| 24′ | Israel Suero Fernández | ||
| 28′ | Íñigo Córdoba | ||
| 30′ | Naim Garcia | ||
| 47′ | Adam Jakobsen | ||
| 56′ | Alejandro San Cristobal SanchezDani Rodriguez | ||
| 56′ | Zico BuurmeesterSuleiman El Haddadi Mohamed | ||
| 57′ | Juanjo NietoLucas Alcázar | ||
| 57′ | Íñigo CórdobaPablo Santiago | ||
| 58′ | Marvelous Antolín Garzón | ||
| 71′ | Adam JakobsenFrancisco Castillo | ||
| 71′ | Marvelous Antolín GarzónRubén Pulido | ||
| 71′ | Patrick SokoUnax del Cura | ||
| 77′ | Álvaro MorataÁlex Millán | ||
| 81′ | Ousmane CamaraÁlvaro García Arana | ||
| 81′ | Israel Suero Fernándezantonio gala | ||
| 82′ | Jeremy Mellot | ||
| 89′ | Yassine Kechta | ||
| 90′ | Rubén Pulido | ||
| 90′ | Unax del Cura |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 320 | Accurate passes | 441 |
Leganes vs Castellón overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leganes vs Castellón
| Probability | Leganes | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.8% | 27.8% | 55.4% |
| Market | 30.1% | 28.0% | 41.9% |
| Final | 26.8% | 27.9% | 45.3% |
| Edge | -13.3% | -0.2% | +13.5% |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Castellón below the model: +13.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leganes and Castellón expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Leganes and Castellón attack and defence ratings
Leganes
Castellón
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Leganes vs Castellón: result vs prediction
Leganes 0 – 2 Castellón
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leganes vs Castellón markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 45.3% | 2.21 | +13.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leganes | 26.8% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Castellón | 45.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | |
| 0-2 | 12.1% |
Leganes vs Castellón stats
Leganes and Castellón recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leganes and Castellón going into this match
Leganes record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Castellón | Leganes | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Leganes | Castellón | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2021-03-06 | Leganes | Castellón | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2020-10-04 | Castellón | Leganes | Segunda División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leganes vs Castellón odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 28.0%, away 41.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 3.44 | 2.28 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.34 | 2.21 |
| Pinnacle | 3.28 | 3.37 | 2.31 |
| SBO | 2.92 | 3.14 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .