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Segunda División · Full time ·Matchday 10

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo

1 – 2 Full time

20′Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre
22′Marino Illesca
23′Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva
25′David Jimenez
43′Jordi Escobar
45′Alexander Petxarroman EizagirreCarlos Redruello Nimo
56′José Juan Romero Gil
59′Víctor García MingoJosé Luis Morales
59′David JimenezNacho Vidal
59′Alberto ReinaPablo Saenz
61′Carlos Dominguez
72′Edgar SevikyanOmar Sadik
72′Kialy Abdoul KoneAlejandro Camacho Ramírez
74′Mikel Goti LopezJacobo González
81′José MatosAbraham Bueno Espinosa
83′Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
84′Enzo Pérez MirandaDaniel Villahermosa
90′Kuki Zalazar
90′Aritz Aldasoro
90′Carlos Dominguez

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, CeutaReferee: Jose Guzman

AD Ceuta FC 31%
Draw 29%
Real Oviedo 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

28 Shots 17
7 Shots on target 9
52 Possession % 48
14 Corners 2
14 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 1
7 Saves 5
340 Accurate passes 308

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAD Ceuta FCDrawReal Oviedo
Model33.7%29.0%37.3%
Market30.6%28.4%41.0%
Final31.4%28.6%40.1%
Edge+0.8%+0.2%-0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Real Oviedo

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AD Ceuta FC ↓ / Real Oviedo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 9% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo expected goals

AD Ceuta FC 1.25
Real Oviedo 1.33

Total expected goals: 2.58

AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo attack and defence ratings

AD Ceuta FC

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Real Oviedo

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo: result vs prediction

AD Ceuta FC 1 – 2 Real Oviedo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Oviedo 40.1% 2.50 -0.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.5% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.7% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AD Ceuta FC31.4%
Draw28.6%
Real Oviedo40.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%
Both teams to scoreYes53.7%
No46.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.9%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)68.6%
Handicap -1Real Oviedo win17.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss62.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.9%
0-08.9%
0-18.8%

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo stats

AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo recent form

newest first
AD Ceuta FC LDWDLL
Real Oviedo WLWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo going into this match

league record before kick-off

AD Ceuta FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Oviedo record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.1%, draw 28.5%, away 40.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.12 3.44 2.32
Bet365 3.10 3.20 2.35
BetVictor 3.00 3.25 2.20
Betano 3.00 3.30 2.42
Betfair 2.80 3.25 2.30
Dafabet 3.00 3.30 2.41
Marathonbet 3.02 3.34 2.25
Pinnacle 3.19 3.38 2.33
SBO 2.78 3.00 2.18
William Hill 3.00 3.10 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.06 ▼ -0.16
X 3.29 ▼ -0.02
2 2.29 ▼ -0.03

13 snapshots recorded, from .