AD Ceuta FC
vs
Real Oviedo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Oviedo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo
| Probability | AD Ceuta FC | Draw | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.8% | 29.0% | 37.1% |
| Market | 31.9% | 28.9% | 39.2% |
| Final | 32.4% | 28.9% | 38.7% |
| Edge | +1.9% | +0.2% | -2.1% |
Why Real Oviedo
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo match preview
AD Ceuta FC faces Real Oviedo in a Segunda División clash with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match are 32% for AD Ceuta FC to win, 29% for a draw, and 39% for Real Oviedo to secure victory. The expected goals for AD Ceuta FC stand at 1.28, while Real Oviedo is projected at 1.10. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of recent form, AD Ceuta FC has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Real Oviedo has performed better with four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. Our model indicates a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo attack and defence ratings
AD Ceuta FC
Real Oviedo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oviedo | 38.7% | 2.58 | -2.1% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Ceuta FC | 32.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Real Oviedo | 38.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Oviedo win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo stats
AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo recent form
| AD Ceuta FC |
LDWDLL |
| Real Oviedo |
WLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AD Ceuta FC and Real Oviedo season so far
AD Ceuta FC record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Oviedo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 28.7%, away 39.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 3.36 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.41 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 3.26 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.97 | 3.39 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.00 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .