Las Palmas
vs
Castellón
0 – 3 Full time
Las Palmas vs Castellón overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Las Palmas vs Castellón
| Probability | Las Palmas | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.0% | 25.7% | 55.3% |
| Market | 26.9% | 25.7% | 47.4% |
| Final | 25.0% | 25.7% | 49.4% |
| Edge | -7.9% | +0.0% | +7.9% |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Castellón below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Las Palmas and Castellón expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Las Palmas and Castellón attack and defence ratings
Las Palmas
Castellón
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Las Palmas vs Castellón: result vs prediction
Las Palmas 0 – 3 Castellón
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Las Palmas vs Castellón markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 49.4% | 2.03 | +7.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Palmas | 25.0% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Castellón | 49.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | |
| 0-2 | 10.3% |
Las Palmas vs Castellón stats
Las Palmas and Castellón recent form
| Las Palmas |
LDLLWD |
| Castellón |
LDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Las Palmas and Castellón going into this match
Las Palmas record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Palmas vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Las Palmas | Castellón | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Castellón | Las Palmas | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2021-02-27 | Castellón | Las Palmas | Segunda División | 4-0 |
| 2020-10-21 | Las Palmas | Castellón | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2019-12-17 | Castellón | Las Palmas | Copa del Rey | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Las Palmas vs Castellón odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.4%, draw 25.6%, away 47.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.53 | 3.82 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.65 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.54 | 3.78 | 2.05 |
| SBO | 2.95 | 3.17 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .