Castellón
vs
Sporting Gijon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Castellón
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.72.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Castellón is the favourite, not a value bet.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Castellón vs Sporting Gijon
| Probability | Castellón | Draw | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 27.6% | 16.0% |
| Market | 62.8% | 21.6% | 15.6% |
| Final | 61.2% | 23.1% | 15.7% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +1.5% | +0.1% |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.72.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (our 61.2% × 1.53 − 1).
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon match preview
Castellón enters this match against Sporting Gijon with a strong probability of winning at 62%, while Sporting Gijon has a lower chance at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Castellón, occurring with a 15% probability. Expected goals suggest Castellón is projected to score 1.56, compared to Sporting Gijon's 0.72, indicating a significant advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Castellón has shown consistency with three wins in their last five matches, while Sporting Gijon has had a mixed performance, winning three but losing two of their last five. The head-to-head record in their last two encounters shows each team with one win, adding an element of competitiveness to the matchup. The model indicates a 40% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Castellón and Sporting Gijon expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Castellón and Sporting Gijon attack and defence ratings
Castellón
Sporting Gijon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 61.2% | 1.63 | -1.6% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 61.2% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Sporting Gijon | 15.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.6% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.8% |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | |
| 2-0 | 12.4% |
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon stats
Castellón and Sporting Gijon recent form
| Castellón |
WLDWWW |
| Sporting Gijon |
WWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Castellón and Sporting Gijon season so far
Castellón record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting Gijon record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Sporting Gijon | Castellón | Segunda División | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Castellón | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Castellón vs Sporting Gijon odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.8%, draw 21.8%, away 15.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.59 | 6.24 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.40 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 4.45 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.40 | 6.06 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 3.81 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .