Conquense
vs
Castellón
Garuda Lions Prediction: Castellón
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Conquense vs Castellón overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Conquense vs Castellón
| Probability | Conquense | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.8% | 27.4% | 59.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.8% | 27.4% | 59.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Conquense vs Castellón match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Conquense faces Castellón on October 29, 2026. According to our model, Conquense has a 13% chance of winning, while Castellón is favored with a 60% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring with a 17% likelihood. Expected goals for Conquense stand at 0.58, contrasting with Castellón's 1.55.
Recent form indicates a mixed performance for Conquense, who has recorded a loss followed by a win, while Castellón has shown strong form with four consecutive wins, alongside a draw. The model suggests a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and the same probability for both teams to score, reflecting a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Conquense and Castellón expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Conquense and Castellón attack and defence ratings
Conquense
Castellón
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Conquense vs Castellón markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Conquense | 12.8% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Castellón | 59.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.0% |
| No | 64.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 32.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 40.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.3% |
| 0-2 | 14.2% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Conquense vs Castellón stats
Conquense and Castellón recent form
| Conquense |
LW |
| Castellón |
LDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.