Burgos
vs
Castellón
Garuda Lions Prediction: Castellón
0 – 1 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.70.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Castellón is the favourite, not a value bet.
Burgos vs Castellón overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs Castellón
| Probability | Burgos | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.5% | 34.0% | 44.5% |
| Market | 26.5% | 27.2% | 46.3% |
| Final | 25.2% | 28.9% | 45.8% |
| Edge | -1.2% | +1.7% | -0.5% |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.70.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (our 45.8% × 2.07 − 1).
Burgos vs Castellón match preview
Burgos faces Castellón in a Segunda División clash, with the probabilities indicating Castellón holds a stronger position at 46%, compared to Burgos at 25% and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Castellón, with an expected goals tally of 0.70 for Burgos and 1.13 for Castellón.
Recent form shows Burgos with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Castellón has a solid record with four wins, one loss, and one draw. In their last two encounters, Castellón has secured one win and one draw against Burgos, highlighting their slight edge in head-to-head matchups. The confidence grade for this forecast is C, suggesting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burgos and Castellón expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.83
Burgos and Castellón attack and defence ratings
Burgos
Castellón
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burgos vs Castellón markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 45.8% | 2.18 | -0.5% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 25.2% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Castellón | 45.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.5% |
| No | 64.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.2% |
| 0-1 | 16.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
Burgos vs Castellón stats
Burgos and Castellón recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burgos and Castellón season so far
Burgos record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burgos vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Castellón | Burgos | Segunda División | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Burgos | Castellón | Segunda División | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burgos vs Castellón odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.5%, draw 27.2%, away 46.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.62 | 3.52 | 2.07 |