Real Valladolid
vs
Castellón
Garuda Lions Prediction: Castellón
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.04.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Valladolid vs Castellón
| Probability | Real Valladolid | Draw | Castellón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.5% | 25.2% | 54.3% |
| Market | 33.0% | 27.0% | 39.9% |
| Final | 29.9% | 26.6% | 43.5% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -0.5% | +3.6% |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.04.
- The market prices Castellón below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.0% per unit staked (our 43.5% × 2.55 − 1).
Real Valladolid vs Castellón match preview
Real Valladolid faces Castellón in an upcoming Segunda División match, with the probabilities indicating a 19% chance of a Valladolid win, a 24% likelihood of a draw, and a 57% chance for Castellón to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 55% probability for each side finding the net, and the model suggests a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Real Valladolid has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Castellón has a slightly stronger record with three wins, one loss, and a draw. The expected goals for this match are 1.01 for Real Valladolid and 1.88 for Castellón, reflecting a challenging matchup for the home side. The confidence grade for this forecast stands at C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Valladolid and Castellón expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Real Valladolid and Castellón attack and defence ratings
Real Valladolid
Castellón
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Valladolid vs Castellón markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 43.5% | 2.30 | +3.6% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 29.9% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Castellón | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 45.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.5% |
Real Valladolid vs Castellón stats
Real Valladolid and Castellón recent form
| Real Valladolid |
WWWLLW |
| Castellón |
DWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Valladolid and Castellón season so far
Real Valladolid record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Real Valladolid | Castellón | Segunda División | 0-4 |
| 2025-08-22 | Castellón | Real Valladolid | Segunda División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.0%, draw 27.0%, away 39.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.87 | 3.70 | 2.37 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.55 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.78 | 3.58 | 2.29 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.72 | 2.34 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.16 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .