Laredo
vs
Burgos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burgos
0 – 2 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Laredo vs Burgos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Laredo vs Burgos
| Probability | Laredo | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 9.6% | 19.5% | 70.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 9.6% | 19.5% | 70.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Burgos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Laredo vs Burgos match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Laredo faces Burgos, with the probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. According to our model, Laredo has a 10% chance of winning, while Burgos stands at 71%, with a draw at 20%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-2, occurring with a 13% probability.
Laredo's expected goals are at 0.70, contrasting sharply with Burgos's 2.20. Recent form shows Laredo coming off a loss, while Burgos has experienced a mixed run with two losses, followed by three wins and a draw. Additionally, there is a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Laredo and Burgos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Laredo and Burgos attack and defence ratings
Laredo
Burgos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Laredo vs Burgos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burgos | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Laredo | 9.6% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Burgos | 70.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.6% |
| No | 54.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burgos win | 47.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 29.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | |
| 0-3 | 9.8% |
Laredo vs Burgos stats
Laredo and Burgos recent form
| Laredo |
L |
| Burgos |
LLWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.