Real Oviedo
vs
Las Palmas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Oviedo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.38.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Real Oviedo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas
| Probability | Real Oviedo | Draw | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 23.6% | 25.6% |
| Market | 54.3% | 25.3% | 20.4% |
| Final | 53.4% | 24.8% | 21.7% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -0.4% | +1.3% |
Why Real Oviedo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (our 53.4% × 1.78 − 1).
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas match preview
Real Oviedo enters the match with a probability of 54% to win against Las Palmas, who has a 21% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Real Oviedo, with an expected goals tally of 1.82 for them compared to 1.05 for Las Palmas. The model also suggests a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Real Oviedo has recorded a mixed set of results with a draw, two wins, and two losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Las Palmas has struggled, managing just one win in their last six outings, alongside three losses and two draws. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Oviedo and Las Palmas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Real Oviedo and Las Palmas attack and defence ratings
Real Oviedo
Las Palmas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oviedo | 53.4% | 1.87 | -0.9% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oviedo | 53.4% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Las Palmas | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.6% |
| No | 34.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Oviedo win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.8% |
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas stats
Real Oviedo and Las Palmas recent form
| Real Oviedo |
DDWWLW |
| Las Palmas |
WWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Oviedo and Las Palmas season so far
Real Oviedo record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Palmas record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 25.3%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.86 | 4.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 3.86 | 4.68 |
| SBO | 1.72 | 3.21 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .