Numancia
vs
Real Oviedo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Oviedo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Numancia vs Real Oviedo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Numancia vs Real Oviedo
| Probability | Numancia | Draw | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.4% | 28.7% | 41.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 29.4% | 28.7% | 41.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Real Oviedo
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Numancia vs Real Oviedo match preview
Numancia faces Real Oviedo in the Copa del Rey, with the match set to kick off on October 28, 2026. According to our model, Real Oviedo holds a 42% probability of winning, compared to Numancia's 29% and a 29% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Numancia stand at 1.16, while Real Oviedo is projected at 1.43, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Numancia has recorded a mixed performance with a record of L-W-L, while Real Oviedo has shown more inconsistency with W-L-W-L-W-D. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 53% probability that both teams will score, and a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Numancia and Real Oviedo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.59
Numancia and Real Oviedo attack and defence ratings
Numancia
Real Oviedo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Numancia vs Real Oviedo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Oviedo | 41.9% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Numancia | 29.4% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Real Oviedo | 41.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Oviedo win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.9% |
Numancia vs Real Oviedo stats
Numancia and Real Oviedo recent form
| Numancia |
LWL |
| Real Oviedo |
WLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.