Las Palmas
vs
Eldense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Las Palmas
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Las Palmas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Las Palmas vs Eldense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Las Palmas vs Eldense
| Probability | Las Palmas | Draw | Eldense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.6% | 26.4% | 27.9% |
| Market | 43.1% | 27.3% | 29.6% |
| Final | 43.7% | 27.0% | 29.2% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
Why Las Palmas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.26.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.25 − 1).
Las Palmas vs Eldense match preview
Las Palmas and Eldense are set to clash in the Segunda División, with Las Palmas holding a 43% probability of winning, compared to 29% for Eldense and 28% for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Las Palmas, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Las Palmas stand at 1.51, while Eldense is projected at 1.22.
In terms of recent form, Las Palmas has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Eldense has been in better shape, winning four of their last six games, with two losses. Our model suggests a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score in this encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Las Palmas and Eldense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Las Palmas and Eldense attack and defence ratings
Las Palmas
Eldense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Las Palmas vs Eldense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Palmas | 43.7% | 2.29 | +0.6% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Palmas | 43.7% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Eldense | 29.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Palmas win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.8% |
Las Palmas vs Eldense stats
Las Palmas and Eldense recent form
| Las Palmas |
WWWLLD |
| Eldense |
LWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Las Palmas and Eldense season so far
Las Palmas record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eldense record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Las Palmas vs Eldense head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Las Palmas vs Eldense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 27.3%, away 29.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.57 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.46 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .