Girona
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Girona
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.94.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Girona is the favourite, not a value bet.
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Girona vs Celta de Vigo II
| Probability | Girona | Draw | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.6% | 25.2% | 18.3% |
| Market | 68.0% | 18.6% | 13.3% |
| Final | 65.2% | 20.3% | 14.6% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +1.6% | +1.2% |
Why Girona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (our 65.2% × 1.42 − 1).
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II match preview
Girona enters this match against Celta de Vigo II with a strong probability of winning at 66%, reflecting their recent form of two wins, two draws, and one loss. The expected goals for Girona stand at 1.80, suggesting they are likely to create more scoring opportunities than their opponents, who have an expected goals figure of 0.94. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with an 11% probability.
Celta de Vigo II's recent performance shows a mixed bag with one win, two draws, and three losses, contributing to their 14% probability of victory. The model indicates a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 52% likelihood that both teams will score. Given these statistics, Girona appears to be the stronger side heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Girona and Celta de Vigo II expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Girona and Celta de Vigo II attack and defence ratings
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 65.2% | 1.53 | -2.9% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 65.2% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| Celta de Vigo II | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 43.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 10.5% |
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II stats
Girona and Celta de Vigo II recent form
| Girona |
WDDWWL |
| Celta de Vigo II |
DWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Girona and Celta de Vigo II season so far
Girona record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta de Vigo II record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Girona vs Celta de Vigo II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.9%, draw 18.9%, away 13.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.27 | 8.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.34 | 5.05 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 4.80 | 7.93 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.44 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .