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Segunda División · ·Matchday 10

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife

Garuda Lions Prediction: Celta de Vigo II

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

Bet on Celta de Vigo II

Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo

Celta de Vigo II 39%
Draw 28%
Tenerife 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Celta de Vigo II wins
39%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
63%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCelta de Vigo IIDrawTenerife
Model46.7%25.2%28.0%
Market36.0%29.1%34.9%
Final38.7%28.2%33.2%
Edge+10.8%-3.9%-6.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Celta de Vigo II

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Celta de Vigo II below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.66, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife match preview

Celta de Vigo II faces Tenerife in an intriguing Segunda División matchup. According to our model, Celta de Vigo II has a 39% chance of winning, while Tenerife holds a 34% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Celta de Vigo II, with an expected goals tally of 1.79 for Celta and 1.34 for Tenerife.

In terms of scoring dynamics, our model indicates a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score. Recent form shows Celta de Vigo II with a mixed record of W-L-D-L-L-W, while Tenerife has recorded D-L-D-L-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Celta de Vigo ↓ / Tenerife → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 12% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Celta de Vigo II and Tenerife expected goals

Celta de Vigo II 1.78
Tenerife 1.35

Total expected goals: 3.13

Celta de Vigo II and Tenerife attack and defence ratings

Celta de Vigo II

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Tenerife

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Celta de Vigo II 38.7% 2.59 +10.8% 2.66
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.5% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.6% 1.60 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.3% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Celta de Vigo II38.7%
Draw28.2%
Tenerife33.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%
Both teams to scoreYes62.6%
No37.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.8%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)61.3%
Handicap -1Celta de Vigo II win26.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss53.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-19.4%
1-27.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife stats

Celta de Vigo II and Tenerife recent form

newest first
Celta de Vigo II WLDLLW
Tenerife DLDLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Celta de Vigo II and Tenerife season so far

league record

Celta de Vigo II record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tenerife record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Celta de Vigo II vs Tenerife odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 29.1%, away 34.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.66 3.32 2.74
Bet365 2.62 3.10 2.70
BetVictor 2.55 3.20 2.55
Betano 2.65 3.15 2.85
Betfair 2.50 3.25 2.55
Dafabet 2.65 3.25 2.75
Marathonbet 2.58 3.22 2.66
Pinnacle 2.66 3.25 2.74
SBO 2.44 2.96 2.49
William Hill 2.50 3.00 2.62
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.60 ▼ -0.02
X 3.21 ▼ -0.03
2 2.68 ▲ +0.04

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Celta de Vigo II Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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