Tenerife
vs
Girona
Garuda Lions Prediction: Girona
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Tenerife vs Girona overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tenerife vs Girona
| Probability | Tenerife | Draw | Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.0% | 29.4% | 39.5% |
| Market | 33.6% | 30.0% | 36.4% |
| Final | 32.9% | 29.9% | 37.2% |
| Edge | -2.5% | -0.6% | +3.1% |
Why Girona
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Girona below the model: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tenerife vs Girona match preview
Tenerife faces Girona in the Segunda División with kickoff scheduled for October 12, 2026. The model suggests a competitive match, with Girona holding a slight edge in win probability at 39%, compared to Tenerife's 32% and a 30% chance of a draw. The expected goals indicate a close encounter, with Tenerife projected to score 1.16 and Girona 1.34.
In terms of recent form, Tenerife has struggled, recording two losses and a draw in their last three matches, while Girona has shown better performance with four wins in their last six games. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Girona, which aligns with the probabilities indicating a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tenerife and Girona expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Tenerife and Girona attack and defence ratings
Tenerife
Girona
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tenerife vs Girona markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Girona | 37.2% | 2.69 | +3.1% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 32.9% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Girona | 37.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
Tenerife vs Girona stats
Tenerife and Girona recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tenerife and Girona season so far
Tenerife record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Girona record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tenerife vs Girona head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Tenerife vs Girona odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 30.0%, away 36.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.13 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.15 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.10 | 2.61 |
| SBO | 2.61 | 2.94 | 2.33 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .