Pamplona
vs
Eibar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eibar
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Eibar is the favourite, not a value bet.
Pamplona vs Eibar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pamplona vs Eibar
| Probability | Pamplona | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.8% | 23.2% | 59.0% |
| Market | 6.2% | 13.7% | 80.1% |
| Final | 9.1% | 16.1% | 74.8% |
| Edge | +2.9% | +2.4% | -5.3% |
Why Eibar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.03.
Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.2% per unit staked (our 74.8% × 1.20 − 1).
Pamplona vs Eibar match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Pamplona faces Eibar with a significant disparity in predicted outcomes. Our model gives Pamplona a 9% chance of winning, while Eibar is favored at 75%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Eibar, which aligns with expected goals of 1.03 for Pamplona and 2.01 for Eibar.
Eibar's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Pamplona's recent performance is not available for analysis. The probabilities indicate a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pamplona and Eibar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
Pamplona and Eibar attack and defence ratings
Pamplona
Eibar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pamplona vs Eibar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 74.8% | 1.34 | -5.3% | 1.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.9% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pamplona | 9.1% |
| Draw | 16.1% | |
| Eibar | 74.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win | 36.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 10.0% | |
| 0-2 | 9.7% |
Pamplona vs Eibar stats
Pamplona and Eibar recent form
| Pamplona |
no matches on record |
| Eibar |
DLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pamplona vs Eibar head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Pamplona vs Eibar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 6.2%, draw 13.7%, away 80.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 15.00 | 6.85 | 1.17 |
| Bet365 | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.20 |
| BetVictor | 15.00 | 6.50 | 1.14 |
| Betano | 11.50 | 6.00 | 1.20 |
| Betfair | 15.00 | 8.00 | 1.15 |
| Dafabet | 14.00 | 7.40 | 1.20 |
| Marathonbet | 15.75 | 6.85 | 1.16 |
| Pinnacle | 12.65 | 7.06 | 1.11 |
| William Hill | 15.00 | 6.50 | 1.17 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .