Pamplona
vs
Eibar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Eibar
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Pamplona vs Eibar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pamplona vs Eibar
| Probability | Pamplona | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.3% | 20.2% | 64.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 15.3% | 20.2% | 64.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Eibar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.08.
Pamplona vs Eibar match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Pamplona faces Eibar with a significant disparity in predicted outcomes. According to our model, Pamplona has a 15% chance of winning, while Eibar is favored at 64%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of Eibar, which aligns with their recent form of five consecutive wins.
The expected goals for Pamplona stand at 1.08, contrasting sharply with Eibar's 2.33. Additionally, there is a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and a 60% chance that both teams will find the net. This match presents a challenging scenario for Pamplona as they look to overcome Eibar's current momentum.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pamplona and Eibar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Pamplona and Eibar attack and defence ratings
Pamplona
Eibar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pamplona vs Eibar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pamplona | 15.3% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Eibar | 64.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win | 42.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 35.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 0-2 | 9.0% |
Pamplona vs Eibar stats
Pamplona and Eibar recent form
| Pamplona | no matches on record |
| Eibar |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.