Trival Valderas
vs
Leganes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leganes
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leganes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Trival Valderas vs Leganes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trival Valderas vs Leganes
| Probability | Trival Valderas | Draw | Leganes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 27.5% | 33.9% |
| Market | 4.9% | 12.5% | 82.6% |
| Final | 13.4% | 16.2% | 70.4% |
| Edge | +8.4% | +3.8% | -12.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.0% per unit staked (our 70.4% × 1.15 − 1).
Trival Valderas vs Leganes match preview
Trival Valderas faces Leganes in the Copa del Rey on November 10, 2026. According to our model, Trival Valderas has a 13% chance of winning, while Leganes stands at a 70% probability. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2 in favor of Leganes, with a probability of 8%. The expected goals for Trival Valderas is 1.47, compared to Leganes' 1.36.
Leganes comes into this match with a recent form of L-L-D-L-L-L, indicating a challenging stretch. In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model suggests a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Trival Valderas and Leganes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Trival Valderas and Leganes attack and defence ratings
Trival Valderas
Leganes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Trival Valderas vs Leganes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leganes | 70.4% | 1.42 | -12.2% | 1.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.6% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trival Valderas | 13.4% |
| Draw | 16.2% | |
| Leganes | 70.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leganes win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 66.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Trival Valderas vs Leganes stats
Trival Valderas and Leganes recent form
| Trival Valderas |
no matches on record |
| Leganes |
LLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trival Valderas vs Leganes head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Trival Valderas vs Leganes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 4.9%, draw 12.5%, away 82.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 18.50 | 7.40 | 1.13 |
| Bet365 | 23.00 | 8.50 | 1.12 |
| BetVictor | 19.00 | 7.50 | 1.10 |
| Betano | 18.00 | 6.20 | 1.15 |
| Betfair | 23.00 | 11.00 | 1.08 |
| Dafabet | 21.00 | 8.40 | 1.14 |
| Marathonbet | 18.75 | 7.40 | 1.13 |
| Pinnacle | 15.30 | 7.54 | 1.10 |
| William Hill | 19.00 | 7.00 | 1.14 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
27 snapshots recorded, from .