Albacete
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Albacete
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.57.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II
| Probability | Albacete | Draw | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.9% | 23.4% | 29.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.9% | 23.4% | 29.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Albacete
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II match preview
Albacete enters this match with a recent form of W-W-W-L-L-L, indicating a strong start followed by a dip in performance. The model assigns a 47% probability of an Albacete victory, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1, which occurs at a 9% likelihood. They are expected to score 1.99 goals, while Celta de Vigo II is projected to net 1.57 goals.
Celta de Vigo II's recent form shows L-D-L-D-W-L, suggesting inconsistency. The model gives them a 30% chance of winning, with both teams expected to score, indicated by a 69% probability for both teams to find the net. Additionally, there is a 69% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals, hinting at a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Albacete and Celta de Vigo II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.56
Albacete and Celta de Vigo II attack and defence ratings
Albacete
Celta de Vigo II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 46.9% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Celta de Vigo II | 29.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Albacete win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Albacete vs Celta de Vigo II stats
Albacete and Celta de Vigo II recent form
| Albacete |
WWWLLL |
| Celta de Vigo II |
LDLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Albacete and Celta de Vigo II season so far
Albacete record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Celta de Vigo II record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.