Calvo Sotelo
vs
Albacete
Garuda Lions Prediction: Albacete
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Albacete is the favourite, not a value bet.
Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete
| Probability | Calvo Sotelo | Draw | Albacete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 26.1% | 46.0% |
| Market | 18.4% | 23.0% | 58.6% |
| Final | 20.8% | 23.8% | 55.4% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +0.8% | -3.2% |
Why Albacete
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.28.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (our 55.4% × 1.73 − 1).
Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete match preview
Calvo Sotelo faces Albacete in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff scheduled for November 12, 2026. According to our model, Calvo Sotelo has a 21% chance of winning, while Albacete stands at 55%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with a 9% probability. Expected goals for Calvo Sotelo are 1.32, while Albacete is slightly higher at 1.48.
Albacete's recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins and four losses in their last six matches. In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model indicates a 53% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Calvo Sotelo and Albacete expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Calvo Sotelo and Albacete attack and defence ratings
Calvo Sotelo
Albacete
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albacete | 55.4% | 1.80 | -3.2% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Calvo Sotelo | 20.8% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Albacete | 55.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Albacete win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 54.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 7.6% |
Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete stats
Calvo Sotelo and Albacete recent form
| Calvo Sotelo |
no matches on record |
| Albacete |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.6%, draw 23.0%, away 59.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.10 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.20 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 3.95 | 1.73 |
| Marathonbet | 5.50 | 4.10 | 1.54 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .