Real Valladolid
vs
Leganes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Valladolid
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.70.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Real Valladolid vs Leganes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Valladolid vs Leganes
| Probability | Real Valladolid | Draw | Leganes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.6% | 23.9% | 12.5% |
| Market | 51.6% | 25.9% | 22.5% |
| Final | 54.6% | 25.4% | 20.0% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.5% | -2.5% |
Why Real Valladolid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Real Valladolid below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.6% per unit staked (our 54.6% × 1.86 − 1).
Real Valladolid vs Leganes match preview
Real Valladolid enters the match against Leganes with a 55% probability of winning, while Leganes has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.84 for Valladolid compared to 0.70 for Leganes. Recent form shows Valladolid with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Leganes has struggled with one win and four losses in the same period.
In their last four encounters, Real Valladolid has secured one win, with Leganes winning two and one match ending in a draw. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 47%, and both teams to score is at 43%. With a confidence grade of C, the match promises to be competitive, reflecting the teams' contrasting recent performances.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Valladolid and Leganes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Real Valladolid and Leganes attack and defence ratings
Real Valladolid
Leganes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Real Valladolid vs Leganes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 54.6% | 1.83 | +3.0% | 1.86 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 54.6% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Leganes | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.3% |
| No | 56.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.5% |
| 2-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
Real Valladolid vs Leganes stats
Real Valladolid and Leganes recent form
| Real Valladolid |
WLLWDW |
| Leganes |
DLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Valladolid and Leganes season so far
Real Valladolid record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Valladolid vs Leganes head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Real Valladolid | Leganes | Segunda División | 3-2 |
| 2026-01-11 | Leganes | Real Valladolid | Segunda División | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Leganes | Real Valladolid | La Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-28 | Real Valladolid | Leganes | La Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Real Valladolid vs Leganes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.6%, draw 25.9%, away 22.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.82 | 4.13 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.65 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.83 | 4.16 |
| SBO | 1.81 | 3.12 | 3.66 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .