Garuda Lions
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Copa del Rey · Full time ·Round of 128

Covadonga vs Real Valladolid

0 – 1 Full time

11′Covadonga
12′R. van Duiven
26′R. van Duiven
45′A. Balboa
45′Tineo Pablo
46′K. de RooijV. Fernandez
60′R. van DuivenA. Arnuncio
60′A. BalboaS. Juric
70′J. Mendez
75′M. LachuerJ. Ponceau
88′Y. CabanzonT. Abed
89′Covadonga

Estadio El Bayu, Pola de Siero

Covadonga 11%
Draw 18%
Real Valladolid 71%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Covadonga vs Real Valladolid overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Covadonga vs Real Valladolid

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCovadongaDrawReal Valladolid
Model23.5%24.1%52.4%
Market7.1%15.5%77.4%
Final11.2%17.6%71.1%
Edge+4.1%+2.2%-6.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Real Valladolid

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.22.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Covadonga ↓ / Real Valladoli → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Covadonga and Real Valladolid expected goals

Covadonga 1.22
Real Valladolid 1.96

Total expected goals: 3.18

Covadonga and Real Valladolid attack and defence ratings

Covadonga

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Real Valladolid

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Covadonga vs Real Valladolid: result vs prediction

Covadonga 0 – 1 Real Valladolid

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Copa del Rey

Before and after this match

Covadonga vs Real Valladolid markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Valladolid 71.1% 1.41 -6.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.5% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.9% 1.62 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 88.8% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.2% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Covadonga11.2%
Draw17.6%
Real Valladolid71.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%
Both teams to scoreYes61.9%
No38.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)28.9%
12 (either side)82.4%
X2 (draw or away)88.8%
Handicap -1Real Valladolid win32.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss46.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
1-29.7%
0-27.8%

Covadonga vs Real Valladolid stats

Covadonga and Real Valladolid recent form

newest first
Covadonga no matches on record
Real Valladolid LLWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Covadonga vs Real Valladolid head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Covadonga vs Real Valladolid odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 7.1%, draw 15.5%, away 77.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 13.80 6.00 1.20
Bet365 13.00 6.50 1.20
BetVictor 13.00 6.00 1.17
Betano 10.75 5.80 1.21
Betfair 13.00 7.00 1.18
Dafabet 13.00 7.00 1.22
Marathonbet 14.25 6.00 1.20
William Hill 12.00 6.00 1.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 13.00 —
X 6.00 —
2 1.20 —

4 snapshots recorded, from .