Covadonga
vs
Real Valladolid
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Valladolid
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Covadonga vs Real Valladolid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Covadonga vs Real Valladolid
| Probability | Covadonga | Draw | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.4% | 24.4% | 55.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.4% | 24.4% | 55.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Real Valladolid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.08.
Covadonga vs Real Valladolid match preview
Covadonga faces Real Valladolid in the Copa del Rey, with kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, Real Valladolid has a 55% probability of winning, while Covadonga stands at 20%, and a draw is assessed at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%.
In terms of goal expectations, Covadonga is forecasted to score 1.08 goals, while Real Valladolid is expected to net 1.89. There is a 57% likelihood for both teams to score, as well as for the match to see over 2.5 goals. Real Valladolid's recent form shows a mix of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Covadonga and Real Valladolid expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Covadonga and Real Valladolid attack and defence ratings
Covadonga
Real Valladolid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Covadonga vs Real Valladolid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Covadonga | 20.4% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Real Valladolid | 55.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win | 32.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.1% |
Covadonga vs Real Valladolid stats
Covadonga and Real Valladolid recent form
| Covadonga | no matches on record |
| Real Valladolid |
WDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.