Villarreal
vs
Getafe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Villarreal
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.31.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 33%.
Villarreal vs Getafe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Villarreal vs Getafe
| Probability | Villarreal | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79.0% | 13.3% | 7.7% |
| Market | 63.4% | 22.2% | 14.4% |
| Final | 67.3% | 19.9% | 12.7% |
| Edge | +3.9% | -2.2% | -1.7% |
Why Villarreal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.31.
- The market prices Villarreal below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (our 67.3% × 1.50 − 1).
Villarreal vs Getafe match preview
Villarreal enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 67%, reflecting their recent form of L-W-W-L-D-W. Their expected goals tally stands at 3.18, suggesting a potent offensive display, with a most likely scoreline of 3-1, occurring at an 8% probability. The model indicates an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals, and a 65% likelihood that both teams will score.
In contrast, Getafe has shown mixed results recently, with a record of W-W-L-L-D-D. Their expected goals are significantly lower at 1.10, indicating challenges in their attacking play. Historically, in the last six encounters against Villarreal, they have managed 1 win, while Villarreal has secured 2 victories and 3 draws. The confidence grade for this match is A, suggesting a strong prediction backing Villarreal.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Villarreal and Getafe expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.60
Villarreal and Getafe attack and defence ratings
Villarreal
Getafe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Malaga vs Racing Santander — team news & stats
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — match page
- Osasuna vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Valencia vs Real Madrid
- Elche vs Real Betis
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page
- Celta Vigo vs Levante — team news & stats
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Villarreal vs Getafe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 67.3% | 1.49 | +3.9% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 67.3% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Getafe | 12.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.2% |
| No | 34.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win | 40.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 40.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Villarreal vs Getafe stats
Villarreal and Getafe recent form
| Villarreal |
LLWWLD |
| Getafe |
LWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Villarreal and Getafe season so far
Villarreal record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Getafe record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Villarreal vs Getafe head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Getafe | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Villarreal | Getafe | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Getafe | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-20 | Villarreal | Getafe | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-16 | Villarreal | Getafe | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-30 | Getafe | Villarreal | La Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Villarreal vs Getafe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.9%, draw 20.9%, away 13.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 4.68 | 7.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.50 | 7.10 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.45 | 4.70 | 7.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 4.55 | 7.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 4.82 | 7.66 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.01 | 6.18 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .