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UEFA Champions League · Full time ·League Stage - 4

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

0 – 6 Full time

9′João Neves
12′Désiré Doue
13′Senny Mayulu
17′Fabián Ruiz
45′Santi Comesaña
45′Nicolas PépéSergi Cardona Bermúdez
50′Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González
50′Fabián Ruiz
60′Senny MayuluMika Godts
60′Maghnes AklioucheFerrán Torres
63′Carlos RomeroTani Oluwaseyi
63′Ayoze PérezGeorges Mikautadze
63′Santi ComesañaAlberto Moleiro
66′Sergi Cardona Bermúdez
74′Achraf HakimiDavid Boly
74′Désiré DoueQuentin Ndjantou
74′VitinhaLucas Beraldo
74′Quentin Ndjantou
78′Alberto Moleiro
78′David Boly
79′Alex FreemanPau Navarro

Estadio de la Cerámica, VillarrealReferee: Felix Zwayer

Villarreal 31%
Draw 21%
Paris Saint Germain 48%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 22
2 Shots on target 12
29 Possession % 71
4 Corners 8
19 Fouls 4
1 Offsides 1
6 Saves 2
237 Accurate passes 677

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVillarrealDrawParis Saint Germain
Model55.3%19.5%25.2%
Market22.5%21.9%55.6%
Final30.7%21.3%48.0%
Edge+8.2%-0.6%-7.6%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Paris Saint Germain

  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Villarreal ↓ / Paris Saint Ge → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 5% 2 4% 7% 7% 3 7% 6% 4+ 4% 8% 7% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain expected goals

Villarreal 2.62
Paris Saint Germain 1.79

Total expected goals: 4.41

Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain attack and defence ratings

Villarreal

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Paris Saint Germain

Attack 1.55 +55%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: result vs prediction

Villarreal 0 – 6 Paris Saint Germain

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 4 fixtures

UEFA Champions League

Before and after this match

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paris Saint Germain 48.0% 2.08 -7.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.5% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.7% 1.29 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.7% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.8% 1.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Villarreal30.7%
Draw21.3%
Paris Saint Germain48.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.5%
Under 2.518.5%
Both teams to scoreYes77.7%
No22.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.0%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)69.3%
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win12.5%
Push (exactly one goal)12.7%
Loss74.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.5%
2-26.7%
3-16.5%

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain stats

Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain recent form

newest first
Villarreal LWWLDW
Paris Saint Germain WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.5%, draw 21.9%, away 55.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.40 4.42 1.78
Bet365 4.33 4.20 1.70
BetVictor 4.20 4.40 1.70
Betano 4.20 4.45 1.78
Betfair 4.40 4.40 1.70
Dafabet 4.20 4.40 1.74
Marathonbet 4.33 4.35 1.75
Pinnacle 4.31 4.36 1.74
SBO 3.68 4.00 1.71
William Hill 4.00 4.00 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.25 ▼ -0.34
X 4.38 ▼ -0.12
2 1.73 ▲ +0.12

14 snapshots recorded, from .