Le Havre
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris Saint Germain
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.66.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Paris Saint Germain is the favourite, not a value bet.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain
| Probability | Le Havre | Draw | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.2% | 17.4% | 62.4% |
| Market | 9.5% | 14.6% | 75.9% |
| Final | 12.2% | 15.3% | 72.5% |
| Edge | +2.7% | +0.7% | -3.4% |
Why Paris Saint Germain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 72.5% × 1.27 − 1).
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain match preview
Le Havre faces Paris Saint Germain in a Ligue 1 clash, with the home side struggling in recent matches, recording three losses and two draws in their last five games. In contrast, Paris Saint Germain boasts an impressive winning streak, having won their last six matches. The model indicates a significant disparity in expected goals, with Le Havre at 1.66 and Paris Saint Germain at 2.76, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the visitors.
The probabilities reflect this trend, with Le Havre at 12% to win, a draw at 15%, and Paris Saint Germain at a commanding 73%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% likelihood that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.42
Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain attack and defence ratings
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 72.5% | 1.38 | -3.4% | 1.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 12.2% |
| Draw | 15.3% | |
| Paris Saint Germain | 72.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% |
| No | 25.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 27.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 42.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.8% |
| 1-3 | 7.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.2% |
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain stats
Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain recent form
| Le Havre |
LLLDLD |
| Paris Saint Germain |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain season so far
Le Havre record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paris Saint Germain record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Le Havre | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Paris Saint Germain | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Paris Saint Germain | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-16 | Le Havre | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-4 |
| 2024-04-27 | Paris Saint Germain | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 3-3 |
| 2023-12-03 | Le Havre | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.5%, draw 14.6%, away 75.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 11.00 | 7.11 | 1.27 |
| Bet365 | 10.00 | 6.25 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 10.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 9.75 | 6.40 | 1.26 |
| Betfair | 10.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 10.00 | 6.80 | 1.24 |
| Marathonbet | 10.50 | 6.75 | 1.25 |
| Pinnacle | 9.87 | 6.94 | 1.22 |
| William Hill | 9.50 | 6.00 | 1.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .