Nice
vs
Rennes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rennes
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rennes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nice vs Rennes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nice vs Rennes
| Probability | Nice | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.6% | 23.0% | 42.3% |
| Market | 34.9% | 25.3% | 39.8% |
| Final | 34.8% | 24.8% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.6% | +0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (our 40.4% × 2.53 − 1).
Nice vs Rennes match preview
In the upcoming Ligue 1 match, Nice faces Rennes with a predicted probability of 35% for a Nice victory, 25% for a draw, and 40% for a Rennes win. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-2, which has an 8% probability. The expected goals are 1.76 for Nice and 1.84 for Rennes, indicating a closely contested match.
Both teams have shown attacking potential, with a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance that both teams will score. Recent form shows Nice with a record of W-L-W-W-L-D, while Rennes has D-L-W-W-L-D. In their last six encounters, Nice has secured three wins, while Rennes has also claimed three victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nice and Rennes expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Nice and Rennes attack and defence ratings
Nice
Rennes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nice vs Rennes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 40.4% | 2.47 | +0.6% | 2.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 34.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Rennes | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Nice vs Rennes stats
Nice and Rennes recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nice and Rennes season so far
Nice record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Rennes record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Nice vs Rennes head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Nice | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 0-4 |
| 2025-10-26 | Rennes | Nice | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Rennes | Nice | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-03 | Nice | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
| 2024-01-13 | Rennes | Nice | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Nice | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nice vs Rennes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 25.3%, away 39.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.84 | 2.53 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.75 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.37 |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.74 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.86 | 2.39 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .