Lille
vs
Lens
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lille
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lille is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lille vs Lens overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lille vs Lens
| Probability | Lille | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.0% | 22.9% | 38.1% |
| Market | 41.2% | 26.3% | 32.5% |
| Final | 40.7% | 25.5% | 33.9% |
| Edge | -0.6% | -0.9% | +1.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.45 − 1).
Lille vs Lens match preview
Lille and Lens are set to clash in an intriguing Ligue 1 matchup. According to our model, Lille has a 41% chance of winning, while Lens holds a 34% probability, and a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Lille, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 68% chance of both teams finding the net, and the model predicts over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Recent form shows Lille with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Lens has two wins, three losses, and a draw. In their last six encounters, Lille has dominated with four wins, one draw, and one loss against Lens. The expected goals for Lille is 1.83, while Lens is projected at 1.72, indicating a competitive match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lille and Lens expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.55
Lille and Lens attack and defence ratings
Lille
Lens
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lille vs Lens markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 40.7% | 2.46 | -0.6% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 40.7% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Lens | 33.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 61.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Lille vs Lens stats
Lille and Lens recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lille and Lens season so far
Lille record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Lens record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lille vs Lens head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Lille | Lens | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Lens | Lille | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Lille | Lens | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Lens | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-29 | Lille | Lens | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Lens | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lille vs Lens odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 26.3%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.66 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 3.70 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.56 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.51 | 3.01 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .