Paris FC
vs
Monaco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris FC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Paris FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Paris FC vs Monaco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paris FC vs Monaco
| Probability | Paris FC | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.2% | 26.1% | 29.7% |
| Market | 41.6% | 26.1% | 32.3% |
| Final | 42.3% | 26.1% | 31.6% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +0.0% | -0.6% |
Why Paris FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.18.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (our 42.3% × 2.38 − 1).
Paris FC vs Monaco match preview
Paris FC hosts Monaco in a Ligue 1 clash with both teams showing varying recent form. Paris FC has recorded two wins, one draw, and a loss in their last five matches, while Monaco has a similar record with three wins and two draws. The probabilities suggest a 42% chance for a Paris FC victory, 32% for Monaco, and a 26% likelihood of a draw.
Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of Paris FC, with expected goals of 1.58 for Paris FC and 1.18 for Monaco. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score. In their last two encounters, Paris FC has won both matches against Monaco, adding to their confidence heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paris FC and Monaco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Paris FC and Monaco attack and defence ratings
Paris FC
Monaco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paris FC vs Monaco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 42.3% | 2.37 | +0.6% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 42.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Monaco | 31.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win | 22.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Paris FC vs Monaco stats
Paris FC and Monaco recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paris FC and Monaco season so far
Paris FC record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monaco record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Paris FC vs Monaco head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Paris FC | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Monaco | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paris FC vs Monaco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.6%, draw 26.1%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.65 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.70 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.65 | 3.08 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 3.26 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .