Auxerre
vs
Paris FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.19.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 49%.
Auxerre vs Paris FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Auxerre vs Paris FC
| Probability | Auxerre | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.6% | 21.1% | 59.2% |
| Market | 26.2% | 25.5% | 48.3% |
| Final | 24.5% | 24.4% | 51.1% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -1.1% | +2.7% |
Why Paris FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.19.
- The market prices Paris FC below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (our 51.1% × 1.87 − 1).
Auxerre vs Paris FC match preview
Auxerre will host Paris FC in a Ligue 1 clash on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Paris FC has a 51% chance of winning, while Auxerre stands at 25%, with a draw at 24%. The expected goals are 1.19 for Auxerre and 2.25 for Paris FC, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows Auxerre with a record of L-D-W-L-W-W, while Paris FC has W-L-W-L-W-D. In their last eight encounters, Auxerre has secured 3 wins, Paris FC has 1 win, and there have been 4 draws. The model suggests a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Auxerre and Paris FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.44
Auxerre and Paris FC attack and defence ratings
Auxerre
Paris FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Auxerre vs Paris FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 51.1% | 1.96 | +2.7% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auxerre | 24.5% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Paris FC | 51.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.8% |
| No | 40.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win | 40.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 37.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 8.7% |
Auxerre vs Paris FC stats
Auxerre and Paris FC recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Auxerre and Paris FC season so far
Auxerre record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Paris FC record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auxerre vs Paris FC head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Auxerre | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Paris FC | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Auxerre | Paris FC | Ligue 2 | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-07 | Paris FC | Auxerre | Ligue 2 | 0-2 |
| 2022-02-01 | Auxerre | Paris FC | Ligue 2 | 1-2 |
| 2021-08-16 | Paris FC | Auxerre | Ligue 2 | 1-1 |
| 2021-03-13 | Auxerre | Paris FC | Ligue 2 | 0-0 |
| 2020-11-21 | Paris FC | Auxerre | Ligue 2 | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Auxerre vs Paris FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.2%, draw 24.1%, away 53.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.30 | 4.04 | 1.87 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 3.95 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 4.00 | 1.79 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 3.94 | 1.82 |
| Pinnacle | 4.34 | 4.07 | 1.79 |
| SBO | 3.87 | 3.44 | 1.73 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .