Rennes
vs
Lille
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rennes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.35.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rennes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Rennes vs Lille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rennes vs Lille
| Probability | Rennes | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 20.2% | 28.0% |
| Market | 45.5% | 25.6% | 28.9% |
| Final | 47.1% | 24.2% | 28.7% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -1.4% | -0.2% |
Why Rennes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 2.20 − 1).
Rennes vs Lille match preview
Rennes is set to face Lille in an intriguing Ligue 1 clash, with Rennes holding a 47% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Rennes, with an expected goals tally of 2.44 for Rennes compared to Lille's 1.69. Both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, with our model indicating a 74% chance that both teams will find the net.
In terms of recent form, Rennes has recorded two wins and one draw in their last six matches, while Lille has experienced a mixed run with two wins and three draws. Historically, the head-to-head results favor Lille slightly, with three wins in the last six encounters, while Rennes has secured one victory and there have been two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rennes and Lille expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.39
Rennes and Lille attack and defence ratings
Rennes
Lille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rennes vs Lille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 47.1% | 2.12 | +1.6% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 47.1% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Lille | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.7% |
| No | 26.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win | 29.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Rennes vs Lille stats
Rennes and Lille recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rennes and Lille season so far
Rennes record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Lille record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rennes vs Lille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Rennes | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Lille | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-16 | Rennes | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-24 | Lille | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-10 | Lille | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | Rennes | Lille | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rennes vs Lille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 25.8%, away 29.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.90 | 3.28 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.74 | 3.29 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.28 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .