Lens
vs
Marseille
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lens
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lens is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lens vs Marseille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lens vs Marseille
| Probability | Lens | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 21.7% | 27.3% |
| Market | 45.9% | 24.3% | 29.8% |
| Final | 47.2% | 23.6% | 29.2% |
| Edge | +1.3% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.6% per unit staked (our 47.2% × 2.30 − 1).
Lens vs Marseille match preview
Lens and Marseille are set to clash in an intriguing Ligue 1 matchup. According to our model, Lens has a 47% chance of winning, while Marseille sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Lens, with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting game, with 69% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score. Expected goals are calculated at 1.97 for Lens and 1.49 for Marseille.
In terms of recent form, Lens has alternated results with a record of L-W-L-W-L-W, while Marseille has shown more consistency with W-W-L-W-L-W. The head-to-head record in the last six encounters is evenly matched, with both teams securing three wins each. The confidence grade for this prediction is A, indicating a strong belief in the forecasted outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lens and Marseille expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Lens and Marseille attack and defence ratings
Lens
Marseille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lens vs Marseille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 47.2% | 2.12 | +1.3% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 47.2% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Marseille | 29.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win | 8.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.5% | |
| Loss | 80.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Lens vs Marseille stats
Lens and Marseille recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lens and Marseille season so far
Lens record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marseille record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lens vs Marseille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Marseille | Lens | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Lens | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Marseille | Lens | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Lens | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
| 2024-04-28 | Marseille | Lens | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Lens | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lens vs Marseille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 24.6%, away 32.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 4.08 | 3.01 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.27 | 3.90 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 3.98 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.96 | 2.98 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.41 | 2.69 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .