Paris Saint Germain
vs
Estac Troyes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Paris Saint Germain
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Paris Saint Germain is the favourite, not a value bet.
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
| Probability | Paris Saint Germain | Draw | Estac Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.3% | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| Market | 83.6% | 10.7% | 5.7% |
| Final | 78.3% | 12.8% | 9.0% |
| Edge | -5.3% | +2.0% | +3.3% |
Why Paris Saint Germain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (our 78.3% × 1.15 − 1).
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes match preview
Paris Saint Germain enters this match with a strong form, having won their last six games. The team's expected goals stand at 2.92, indicating a potent offensive capability. In contrast, Estac Troyes has struggled recently, with a record of one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches, leading to an expected goals figure of just 1.14.
The probabilities suggest a high likelihood of a Paris Saint Germain victory at 78%, while Estac Troyes has a mere 9% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% probability that both teams will score. This match appears to favor the home side significantly based on recent performances and statistical projections.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.06
Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes attack and defence ratings
Paris Saint Germain
Estac Troyes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 78.3% | 1.28 | -5.3% | 1.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.0% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 78.3% |
| Draw | 12.8% | |
| Estac Troyes | 9.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.4% |
| No | 33.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win | 51.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 28.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | |
| 3-1 | 7.5% |
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes stats
Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes recent form
| Paris Saint Germain |
WWWWWW |
| Estac Troyes |
WDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes season so far
Paris Saint Germain record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Estac Troyes record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-07 | Estac Troyes | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
| 2022-10-29 | Paris Saint Germain | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 4-3 |
| 2022-05-08 | Paris Saint Germain | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2021-08-07 | Estac Troyes | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2018-03-03 | Estac Troyes | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2017-11-29 | Paris Saint Germain | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2016-03-13 | Estac Troyes | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 0-9 |
| 2015-11-28 | Paris Saint Germain | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 4-1 |
| 2013-04-13 | Estac Troyes | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2012-11-24 | Paris Saint Germain | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 85.3%, draw 9.8%, away 4.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.15 | 10.40 | 21.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.11 | 9.50 | 21.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.08 | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| Betano | 1.12 | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 10.50 | 18.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.12 | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.13 | 10.00 | 20.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.12 | 11.80 | 18.01 |
| SBO | 1.10 | 8.10 | 13.48 |
| William Hill | 1.11 | 9.50 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .