Le Havre
vs
Lorient
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lorient
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lorient is the favourite, not a value bet.
Le Havre vs Lorient overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Le Havre vs Lorient
| Probability | Le Havre | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.7% | 25.8% | 38.5% |
| Market | 33.9% | 28.2% | 37.8% |
| Final | 34.4% | 27.6% | 38.0% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -0.6% | +0.2% |
Why Lorient
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.64, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (our 38.0% × 2.64 − 1).
Le Havre vs Lorient match preview
Le Havre faces Lorient in a Ligue 1 match with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Le Havre has struggled, recording five losses followed by a draw, while Lorient has been more consistent, with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. The probabilities suggest a close contest, with Lorient at 38% to win, Le Havre at 34%, and a draw at 28%.
The expected goals are nearly identical, with Le Havre at 1.45 and Lorient at 1.43, indicating a potentially competitive match. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Lorient, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Le Havre and Lorient expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Le Havre and Lorient attack and defence ratings
Le Havre
Lorient
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Le Havre vs Lorient markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 38.0% | 2.63 | +0.2% | 2.64 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 34.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Lorient | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 66.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Le Havre vs Lorient stats
Le Havre and Lorient recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Le Havre and Lorient season so far
Le Havre record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lorient record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Le Havre vs Lorient head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Lorient | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Le Havre | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Lorient | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 3-3 |
| 2023-09-03 | Le Havre | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Le Havre vs Lorient odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 28.8%, away 37.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.52 | 2.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.76 | 3.42 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.36 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.64 | 3.06 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .