Le Mans
vs
Monaco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monaco
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.29.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Monaco is the favourite, not a value bet.
Le Mans vs Monaco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Le Mans vs Monaco
| Probability | Le Mans | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.4% | 24.9% | 47.8% |
| Market | 22.5% | 23.7% | 53.8% |
| Final | 23.7% | 24.0% | 52.3% |
| Edge | +1.2% | +0.3% | -1.5% |
Why Monaco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.9% per unit staked (our 52.3% × 1.80 − 1).
Le Mans vs Monaco match preview
Le Mans is set to face Monaco in an intriguing Ligue 1 clash. According to our model, Le Mans has a 24% chance of winning, while Monaco is favored with a 52% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Le Mans recording one win in their last six matches, while Monaco has two wins in the same period.
The expected goals for the match indicate a competitive encounter, with Le Mans projected to score 1.45 and Monaco slightly ahead at 1.58. Our model suggests a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score. This matchup promises to be closely contested, reflecting the teams' current standings and recent performances.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Le Mans and Monaco expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Le Mans and Monaco attack and defence ratings
Le Mans
Monaco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Le Mans vs Monaco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 52.3% | 1.91 | -1.5% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Mans | 23.7% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Monaco | 52.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 51.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-1 | 9.3% |
Le Mans vs Monaco stats
Le Mans and Monaco recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Le Mans and Monaco season so far
Le Mans record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monaco record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Le Mans vs Monaco head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Le Mans vs Monaco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.7%, draw 23.5%, away 54.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.41 | 4.31 | 1.80 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 3.95 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 4.10 | 1.74 |
| Marathonbet | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.75 |
| Pinnacle | 4.36 | 4.36 | 1.74 |
| SBO | 3.92 | 3.62 | 1.68 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .