Estac Troyes
vs
Le Mans
Garuda Lions Prediction: Estac Troyes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.35.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Estac Troyes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
| Probability | Estac Troyes | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.4% | 23.9% | 29.6% |
| Market | 42.2% | 26.8% | 31.0% |
| Final | 43.3% | 26.1% | 30.6% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.7% | -0.3% |
Why Estac Troyes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.35.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.5% per unit staked (our 43.3% × 2.30 − 1).
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans match preview
Estac Troyes faces Le Mans in a Ligue 1 clash with a predicted outcome favoring the home side, having a 45% chance of victory compared to Le Mans's 29%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Estac Troyes, supported by an expected goals tally of 2.07 for Troyes and 1.49 for Le Mans. Both teams are also expected to score, with a 67% probability for that scenario.
Recent form shows Estac Troyes struggling with five consecutive losses, followed by a win, while Le Mans has recorded two losses, a win, a draw, and another loss in their last five matches. In their last two encounters, Estac Troyes has yet to secure a victory against Le Mans, with one draw and one win for Le Mans. The confidence in this forecast is rated as A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estac Troyes and Le Mans expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Estac Troyes and Le Mans attack and defence ratings
Estac Troyes
Le Mans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estac Troyes | 43.3% | 2.31 | +1.1% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estac Troyes | 43.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Le Mans | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Estac Troyes win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 53.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans stats
Estac Troyes and Le Mans recent form
| Estac Troyes |
DLLLLL |
| Le Mans |
DLLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estac Troyes and Le Mans season so far
Estac Troyes record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Le Mans record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Estac Troyes | Le Mans | Ligue 2 | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Le Mans | Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estac Troyes vs Le Mans odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.2%, draw 26.8%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.62 | 3.28 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.52 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.55 | 3.21 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.13 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .