Toulouse
vs
Estac Troyes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toulouse
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
| Probability | Toulouse | Draw | Estac Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.9% | 22.3% | 21.9% |
| Market | 56.4% | 23.4% | 20.2% |
| Final | 56.3% | 23.1% | 20.6% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -1.1% | +1.7% |
Why Toulouse
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes match preview
Toulouse is favored to win against Estac Troyes, with a 56% probability of victory according to our model. The expected goals for Toulouse stand at 2.07, compared to 1.16 for Estac Troyes, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Toulouse has recorded a mix of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. In contrast, Estac Troyes has struggled significantly, losing four consecutive matches before managing a draw. The probabilities suggest a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 59%, reflecting an expectation of an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Toulouse and Estac Troyes expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Toulouse and Estac Troyes attack and defence ratings
Toulouse
Estac Troyes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 56.3% | 1.78 | -0.5% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 56.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Estac Troyes | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 44.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes stats
Toulouse and Estac Troyes recent form
| Toulouse |
WDWDLD |
| Estac Troyes |
LLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Toulouse and Estac Troyes season so far
Toulouse record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estac Troyes record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.1%, draw 23.5%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 4.21 | 4.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.14 | 4.86 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .