Angers
vs
Lorient
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lorient
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lorient is the favourite, not a value bet.
Angers vs Lorient overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Angers vs Lorient
| Probability | Angers | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 24.7% | 42.9% |
| Market | 31.9% | 29.0% | 39.1% |
| Final | 32.1% | 27.9% | 40.0% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -1.1% | +0.9% |
Why Lorient
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.9% per unit staked (our 40.0% × 2.52 − 1).
Angers vs Lorient match preview
Angers will host Lorient in their upcoming Ligue 1 clash on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Angers has a 34% chance of winning, while Lorient stands at 38%, with a 28% probability for a draw. The expected goals for Angers is 1.46, compared to Lorient's 1.62, indicating a closely contested match. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of recent form, Angers has recorded two losses, a win, a draw, and another loss in their last five matches, while Lorient has achieved three wins, a draw, and a loss in the same timeframe. Additionally, our model suggests a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. The head-to-head record shows one win each for Angers and Lorient in their last two encounters.
Angers and Lorient team news
Angers news
- B. Diatta — ankle injury
Lorient news
- B. Fadiga — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Angers and Lorient expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Angers and Lorient attack and defence ratings
Angers
Lorient
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Angers vs Lorient markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 40.0% | 2.50 | +0.9% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angers | 32.1% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Lorient | 40.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win | 22.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 0-1 | 7.8% |
Angers vs Lorient stats
Angers and Lorient recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Angers and Lorient season so far
Angers record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lorient record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Angers vs Lorient head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Lorient | Angers | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Angers | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Angers vs Lorient odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.9%, draw 28.9%, away 39.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.38 | 2.52 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.34 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.01 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .